Three presentations on the economic and pay trends can be seen below. Any-one with a stake in pay bargaining will find some useful information here.
Lewis Emery presents a detailed analysis of pay increases in 2017, based on information about settlements compiled for LRD’s Payline service. He also examines the early increases in 2018 and looks at prospects for the coming year. Settlements fell from 3.9% to 2.0% in the last recession and have never fully recovered. Rising inflation is now starting to push pay settlements upwards, averaging 2.7% in January and on course for 3.0% for the coming year. The marked variations between different industries are explored in detail. A number of factors that will help or hinder higher awards in the coming year are also identified.
Geoff Tiley reports that UK economy growth is “down, but not out”, with weak economic growth set to continue. UK growth is currently near the bottom of the OECD table. The fall in the value of Sterling has boosted the UK manufacturing industry, but construction output is falling. After weighing up the domestic and international risks and opportunities he concludes that 2018 is most likely to bring “more of the same” – a national economy that is quite fragile, with ongoing hardship for many.
Paul Sellers talks about forecasts for average pay growth, the tightening jobs market, and the Bank of England’s 2% CPI inflation target. He also highlights the trade union pay premium of 13.7% percent – the average worker earns more if they are in a trade union.