Official data on the number of employees on payrolls shows this fell by 600,000 between March and May 2020 [1] . During 13 March to 9 April, there were a record number of Universal Credit claims that led to 1.2 million new recipients. On 9th April 2020 there were 4.2 million people on Universal Credit, an increase of 40 per cent in one month compared with an average 4 per cent month-on-month increase between April 2019 and March 2020. [2]
TUC analysis shows that young people are particularly at risk of losing their jobs. Workers aged 25 and under are three times more likely to work in one of the two sectors where jobs are at greatest risk – accommodation and food, or arts, entertainment and recreation. Women workers aged 25 and under face the greatest risk of all. They are six times more likely than male workers over 25 to work in the highest risk sector, accommodation and food. [3] And as we set out further in the next section, groups who already face structural discrimination may face heightened risks: the unemployment rate for BME groups is 6.3 percent - twice as high as for white groups. [4]
These workers need urgent support to get back to work. And the social security system needs to be rebooted to protect their incomes and prevent a damaging spiral into debt.
As we set out in section one, government will need to invest in directly creating jobs, both in new infrastructure and through restoring our public services. Our analysis suggests that 1.24 million jobs could be created in the next two years through investment in vital infrastructure. And government should provide funding to significantly expand the social care workforce, guaranteeing the provision of hundreds of thousands of good quality jobs across the country, and to restore the local government workforce.
New forms of public provision could also provide jobs. For example, a coalition of charities have proposed a new ‘National Nature Service’ designed to level up access to nature and providing tens of thousands of jobs and potential training opportunities across the country.
Government must also invest in dedicated training and support schemes to help people access new jobs.
The TUC set out our proposals for a new government funded Jobs Guarantee in May, [5] with early access to the scheme for young workers. The scheme should deliver jobs that:
The jobs guarantee should be overseen by new regional recovery panels, bringing together unions, business and regional authorities to deliver jobs tailored to local needs.
As we set out above, government must ensure that part of its investment plan, both in infrastructure and across public services, goes to funding guaranteed jobs. Information about planned investment in their area must be given to regional recovery panels, who will be responsible for working with contractors, and across the public sector, to ensure that these are delivered.
In addition to the devastating impact of the pandemic, we need to deal with long-standing skills challenges. Massive under-investment has left us with a legacy of poor productivity and entrenched barriers: government adult skills spending fell by 47 per cent in the last decade and the volume of employer-led training is down by a staggering 60 per cent since the end of the 1990s. And too many of our young people have been let down, e.g., almost 40 per cent of our 25-year-olds do not progress beyond a level 2 qualification (i.e. GCSE or vocational equivalent).
Alongside the Jobs Guarantee government should:
The social security system should support those who do lose their jobs to stay on their feet, and not face a damaging spiral into debt. Government must:
[1] ONS, Labour market overview, UK: June 2020, https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/june2020
[2] DWP, Official Statistics Universal Credit: 29 April 2013 to 9 April 2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-29-april-2013-to-9-april-2020
[3] TUC(2020) Young worker are most at risk from job losses due to the corona virus crisis https://www.tuc.org.uk/research-analysis/reports/young-workers-are-most-risk-job-losses-due-coronavirus-crisis
[4] TUC analysis of ONS data Q1 2020
[5] TUC (2020) A new plan for jobs https://www.tuc.org.uk/research-analysis/reports/new-plan-jobs-why-we-need-new-jobs-guarantee
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