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  • “International outlier” - UK is 27th out of 33 among OECD nations for wage growth since the financial crisis
  • UK workers have suffered a “double whammy” of high inflation and “historically poor” wage growth
  • The TUC says ministers “must stop scapegoating workers” and come up with a credible plan to lift living standards and boost growth

UK workers will miss out on £3,600 this year in pay as result of their wages not keeping pace with the OECD average, according to new TUC analysis published today (Monday).

The analysis shows how the UK’s “abysmal” wage growth since the financial crisis has resulted in 15 years of pay stagnation – with average real pay still 2.7% down compared to 2008.

By contrast, real wage growth across the OECD as a whole has risen by 8.8%, on average, over the same period.

This has left UK workers massively out of pocket compared to their peers in other countries.

Pay gap to worsen

According to the analysis the pay gap between the UK and the OECD will get worse over the next year.

The TUC estimates that based on current OECD forecasts, workers will miss out on an additional £3,800 next year as a result of UK wage growth continuing to lag behind.

International outlier

The union body highlighted how by 2015, wage growth in most other OECD countries had returned to pre-crisis levels.

But even now real wages in the UK are below their 2008 levels.

The analysis found the UK languishing “in the relegation zone” on wage growth among OECD countries – sitting at 27th place out of 33.

Double whammy of high inflation and poor wage growth

The TUC says UK workers are being hit by a double whammy of high inflation and historically poor wage growth.

The UK is currently suffering the highest rate of inflation of any of the G7 countries – and the longest pay squeeze in more than 200 years.

The TUC says years of pay cuts have left workers across the country “brutally exposed” to the rising cost of living.

Stop scapegoating workers

The TUC has called on ministers to stop scapegoating workers for rising inflation.

While real wages are falling across the board, recent TUC analysis showed that nominal pay growth was only accelerating for the top 10% of earners – while it is slowing for the rest of the workforce.  

Workers among the top 1% of earners, with an annual income of at least £180,000, have seen their pay growth more than double [to 7.9% from 3.7%] since the turn of the year.

But workers on the median salary - receiving £26,600 a year – saw a steep fall in annual wage rises, as it halved [to 4.7% from 9.5%] since the turn of the year. 

The TUC says that instead of blaming workers, ministers should focus on a credible plan for sustainable growth and rising living standards.  

TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said:

“Everybody who works for a living deserves to earn a decent living. But workers up and down the country are suffering a pay loss of historic proportions.

“Since the financial crash, in most parts of the world workers have seen their real wages go up. But the UK has been an international outlier on pay with family budgets being shredded.

“The abysmal wage growth of the past 15 years has left UK households brutally exposed to the current cost of living crisis.

“UK workers are being hit by a double whammy of uniquely high inflation and really poor wage growth.

“Instead of scapegoating workers who are just trying to keep their heads above water, ministers must come up with a credible plan for sustainable economic growth and raising living standards.

“Without action, the UK will continue to lurch from crisis to crisis.”

Commenting on the ongoing strike action, Paul Nowak added:

“After the longest wage squeeze in modern history, workers have been forced into taking action to defend their living standards.

“Ministers must get around the table with unions and resolve the ongoing pay disputes.

“If they fail to do so, the exodus of staff from our schools and other public services will continue.”

ENDS

Editors note

Notes to editors:

- OECD countries ranked by real pay growth 2008 to 2023

Country

Real pay growth 2008 to 2023, %

Rank

Lithuania

35.5

1

Poland

35.5

2

Latvia

31.9

2

Estonia

29.7

4

Israel

27.3

5

Slovak Republic

26.3

6

Korea

22.9

7

Iceland

20.5

8

Slovenia

16.6

9

Sweden

14.9

10

Norway

13.9

11

Ireland

12.3

12

Czech Republic

10.8

13

United States

9.8

14

Luxembourg

9.7

15

Switzerland

9.6

16

OECD

8.8

-

Germany

8.7

17

Portugal

8.5

18

Canada

7.4

19

Denmark

5.5

20

Australia

4.7

21

France

1.9

22

Hungary

0.9

23

Belgium

0.1

24

Austria

-1.0

25

Netherlands

-1.1

26

United Kingdom

-2.7

27

Finland

-3.4

28

Japan

-4.3

29

Spain

-6.1

30

Italy

-10.6

31

Mexico

-11.1

32

Greece

-35.0

33

- Methodology note: The analysis is based on earnings and inflation outcomes across all OECD countries since 2008 and OECD projections for 2023 and 2024. See the statistical annex for the June 2023 OECD Economic Outlook: https://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/statistical-annex/

The shortfall in UK wages compared to the OECD takes as its starting point an estimate for UK nominal pay in 2023 of £645 a week, based on the 2022 average weekly earnings of £614 and projected using the OECD estimate for 2023 nominal UK pay growth of 5%.

With UK real wages down by 2.7% since 2008 this is equivalent to a fall of £18 in today’s (2023) prices.

Had UK real wages followed OECD growth of 8.7% they would have been up £52 a week.

The gap is therefore £70, and so in annual terms UK wages would be up £3,620 had they followed the OECD average. A similar calculation was repeated for 2024 based on OECD forecast nominal UK wage growth. This calculation found UK pay down 1.9% in real terms and OECD up 10.2% in real terms compared with 2008.

- Cumulative pay loss: Previous analysis published by the TUC reveals that working people lost nearly a cumulative £20,000 in real earnings between 2008 and 2022 because of pay not keeping pace with inflation. This analysis considered the difference between real pay growth of 0% and the real wage falls workers experienced. This new analysis considers the difference between the average rate of wage growth achieved across the OECD and the real wage falls experienced in the UK.  

- About the TUC: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) exists to make the working world a better place for everyone. We bring together the 5.5 million working people who make up our 48 member unions. We support unions to grow and thrive, and we stand up for everyone who works for a living.

Contacts:

TUC press office 
media@tuc.org.uk  
020 7467 1248 

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