New TUC report ‘A better recovery for the North West (published today, Monday) sets out a plan to prevent mass unemployment following the pandemic, with secure jobs and decent pay for working families.
Unemployment risk in the North West
The TUC warns that there is a high risk of mass unemployment in the North West without a recovery plan centred on protecting and creating jobs, backed by major investment.
Workers who have required support from the job retention scheme and self-employed income support scheme are most likely to face unemployment risks in the months ahead.
In the North West, TUC analysis estimates that at least 1 million workers (30% of the workforce) have required support from these schemes.
The local authorities in the region with the highest proportion of workers seeking support through these schemes are:
The local authorities in the region with the highest number of workers seeking support through these schemes are:
On top of these figures, there will be many other people who have been laid off, or who entered the employment market during the crisis, and have been unable to find work.
And the union body says economic uncertainty will affect all industries, so there will be pressure on the jobs of many workers who have not been furloughed too.
A plan to get the North West growing out of the crisis – and stop mass unemployment
The pandemic alone did not cause the current crisis. It was made worse by a decade of austerity and failure to strengthen the North West economy, says the TUC.
Choosing the wrong approach now risks embedding low growth, long-term unemployment and all the social ills that go alongside.
The report recommends an approach based on recently published TUC research (see notes), which found that the fastest recoveries from economic crises in UK history were based on investment for growth.
An investment for growth approach must be resourced by central government, and will need action at regional level in three key areas:
These priorities complement the national priorities that we have already published in the TUC’s national recovery plan (see the notes below).
Local leadership and workers’ voices
The report calls for the formation of a North West recovery panel with representation from unions, employers, Job Centre Plus, relevant civic partners and local and combined authorities.
Regional panels would work in tandem with a UK National Recovery Panel to turn headline objectives into tailored strategies for each region.
The TUC says that regional structures with devolved powers are essential to achieving the best recovery possible, because the nature and scale of the challenge varies greatly across different parts of the UK.
In the North West, the TUC hopes to continue work with local authorities in Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region and Preston to link procurement to supporting local economies and creating good jobs. They say making money being spent in the region conditional on good employment standards and a living wage will ensure that workers and the wider North West public benefit in any recovery.
They say that different parts of the region will face different challenges and the TUC is calling for local and combined authorities to not be competing against each other. As part of this, they’re calling for investment that supports all of the North West, including in airports and key industries that also benefits supply chains.
Both the regional and national bodies should have worker representation so that workers’ voices are at the heart of decision-making for recovery plans.
TUC regional secretary Jay McKenna said:
“People are very worried about their jobs. Already we are hearing of people being laid off. Losing your job is a dreadful experience for the individual and devastating for families. And if we allow mass unemployment to take hold, our economy will be smaller, and the recovery from the pandemic will be slower.
“That’s why good jobs are at the heart of our recovery plan for the North West. Jobs in a reborn manufacturing sector. Jobs in the green tech we need to safeguard our future. Jobs in automotive and aerospace, that are high-skilled, need protecting. Jobs in hospitality and retail which are valued and paid fairly.
“And we must value our public services in the North West too. Our key workers kept us going through the crisis. But after ten years of cuts, it was much harder for them than it should have been. It’s time to rebuild local public services for the future.
“We all know the size of the challenge her in the North West. But working together, we can ensure there is ‘no going back’ to many of the things we need to leave behind. Instead we can focus on building a better, fairer future for the entire region.
“This week, we’re asking the Chancellor to put his faith in people in the North West and across the UK with big and bold investment. If he backs us in this way, we can avoid mass unemployment, work our way to recovery and build back better.”
Notes to editors:
- Full report: The full report – A Better Recovery for the North West – is here: https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2020-07/Regional%20recovery%20North%20West.pdf
- Regional and local unemployment risk: See the report for the full data by local authority. The analysis is based on claims made of support through the job retention scheme and the self-employed income support scheme. The figures are likely to be an underestimate, as around a million claims have not been assigned a location.
- Mass unemployment: Analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility suggests that the UK unemployment count could reach 3m people as a consequence of the coronavirus crisis https://obr.uk/coronavirus-analysis/
- Evidence in support of investment-led economic recovery: The TUC published research in May 2020 showing that the most successful economic recoveries in the last century of UK history have come from investment-led approaches.
The research compared government expenditure in the decades following significant economic shocks and downturns. It found that during periods like the post-war recovery (1947-57), investment for growth paid for itself.
This is because millions of working families had higher disposable income through decent work, creating the economic demand needed for strong growth and healthy public finances. And investment in stronger public services meant an effective safety that supported people to start and grow businesses.
The following table summarises the analysis, with explanatory notes below.
|
Annual average |
Percentage points of GDP |
|||
Rank |
Decade |
GDP growth, % |
Of which government expenditure, ppts |
Public debt at start of decade |
Change in public debt |
1 |
1931-41 |
4.5 |
9.9 |
181 |
-21 |
2 |
1947-57 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
244 |
-123 |
3 |
1991-2001 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
23 |
+6 |
4 |
1981-91 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
43 |
-19 |
5 |
1975-85 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
54 |
-15 |
6 |
1921-31 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
160 |
+20 |
7 |
2009-19 |
1.9 |
0.2 |
59 |
+22 |
Notes and commentary:
- TUC UK national recovery plan: Our regional reports complement the national report that we published in May 2020. The key areas of action we have called for nationally are:
The full national report can be found here: https://www.tuc.org.uk/ABetterRecovery
- About the TUC: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) exists to make the working world a better place for everyone. We bring together more than 5.5 million working people who make up our 48 member unions. We support unions to grow and thrive, and we stand up for everyone who works for a living.
Contacts:
Jay McKenna
07788 414578
TUC press office
media@tuc.org.uk
020 7467 1248
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