TUC – 800,000 manufacturing jobs could be at risk if government doesn’t implement Biden-style climate plan
- UK in danger of “haemorrhaging” jobs abroad unless it implements Biden-style clean industrial strategy
- Ministers must stop “dithering” and protect Britain’s industrial heartlands
- Industrial revival is possible if government “pulls every lever” to deliver net zero and create and support good jobs, union body says.
The TUC has today (Sunday) warned that around 800,000 manufacturing and supply chain jobs in automotive, steel and other sectors could be at risk if the government does not implement a Biden-style climate plan.
The union body warns the jobs could be lost to countries offering higher climate subsidies and investment in clean infrastructure.
The analysis highlights how an active industrial strategy, like President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act in the US, can support UK industries.
The TUC says the government must “pull every lever to deliver net zero and create and support good jobs.”
Industrial heartlands hit hardest
The analysis shows how communities in Britain’s industrial heartlands will be most impacted if the UK fails to act.
The regions with the most jobs at risk are the West Midlands, the Northwest, and Yorkshire and the Humber.
The TUC says many strategically important industries are in danger of “haemorrhaging” jobs overseas.
Broken down by sector this includes an estimated:
- 112,400 jobs in automotive
- 31,000 jobs in iron and steel
- 38,500 jobs in glass and ceramics
- 66,500 jobs in chemicals
- 15,300 jobs in textiles
- 88,200 jobs in rubber and plastics
- 15,000 jobs in paper and pulp
- 7,200 jobs in refineries
- 6,600 jobs in wood products
- 22,200 jobs in aerospace
The union body says that in addition to factory and plant jobs being under threat from offshoring, many more are at risk in UK supply chains.
The TUC estimates that almost 400,000 jobs in Britain’s supply chains could be affected if the government fails to speed up the UK’s transition to a low carbon economy.
Government can help revive industry
The union body highlighted the success of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which provides much-needed investment to decarbonise traditional industries and safeguard or create good-quality, union jobs.
The US Act has resulted in US companies pledging to build new clean manufacturing facilities and an estimated $900 billion in extra investment from the private sector.
Biden’s plan is also boosting pay and conditions with the US government setting terms that include fair pay and good union jobs.
The EU is also developing similar plans, boosting homegrown clean industries including batteries, critical minerals, and renewable power.
Yet the UK does not currently have a climate focussed industrial strategy, despite the Conservatives being in power for 13 years. Recent government funded schemes for industry and infrastructure come without conditions for creating good jobs.
New political consensus needed
The TUC calls on all parties to urgently lay out detailed plans for a Biden-style clean industrial strategy for the UK, including how this will shore up traditional industries and accelerate climate action.
According to the union body, this strategy should pull every available lever including subsidies, direct government investment, trade rules, public ownership and conditions on procurement and licences.
An active industrial strategy could:
- Require companies receiving net zero funding to pay, train, and treat their workers fairly.
- Encourage worker input at board level in every workplace.
- Resource public institutions robustly so they can play their part
- Deliver reforms to improve workers’ rights and corporate governance.
TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said:
“British industry can adapt to net zero. The race to net zero is also a race for industrial revival.
“If we move quickly we can protect and create hundreds of thousands of good jobs across the UK.
“But our government is stuck in first gear. While other countries are scaling up subsidies for clean technology and infrastructure, the Conservatives have yet to produce a jobs and climate focussed industrial strategy.
“The UK needs to speed up to stay in the race. If we don’t want to lose jobs to other nations, we need government to stop dithering and pull every lever it has to stop our industries haemorrhaging hundreds of thousands of jobs – and kick off a British industrial revival.
“We must act now to safeguard our industrial heartlands and manufacturing sector. Then today’s workers will know that their jobs are safe, and the future is bright with decent jobs for their children too.”
TUC report: Pulling all the levers - https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/pulling-all-the-levers-tuc2023.pdf
Sectoral breakdown of manufacturing jobs at risk of offshoring
|
Sector |
Direct jobs at risk |
Supply chain jobs at risk |
|
Refineries |
7,200 |
19,700 |
|
Chemicals |
66,500 |
75,300 |
|
Iron and steel |
31,000 |
30,800 |
|
Cement and lime |
1,200 |
1,600 |
|
Paper, pulp, and printing |
15,000 |
11,900 |
|
Rubber and plastics |
88,200 |
31,500 |
|
Glass and ceramics |
38,500 |
19,200 |
|
Textiles |
15,300 |
5,000 |
|
Wood |
6,600 |
2,000 |
|
Automotive |
112,400 |
162,000 |
|
Shipbuilding |
10,400 |
5,200 |
|
Aerospace |
22,200 |
23,400 |
|
Manufacture of engines, turbines, furnaces, and boilers |
16,800 |
8,000 |
|
Manufacture of construction and mining machinery |
5,000 |
1,800 |
|
Total |
436,300 |
397,400 |
Supply chain jobs have been adjusted down to remove double-counting, and will include jobs in a wide range of sectors .
Methodology:
To define industries at risk of offshoring, the TUC’s calculations use analysis from the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) on the industries most at risk of carbon leakage (top-end, broader estimate). ESC is funded by Innovate UK, which is part UK Research and Innovation, a public body funded by the UK government.
Additionally this analysis includes sectors where mass technological change is needed to phase out emissions from products (automotive, aerospace, shipbuilding).
Direct job numbers for sectors at risk are sourced from the ONS Business Register and Employment Survey (reference year 2021). The sectoral estimates were then downgraded based on the TUC’s analysis of the relative susceptibility of each broader sector to offshoring due to decarbonisation.
The susceptibility analysis considered a number of factors, including: the sector’s overall fossil fuel consumption; carbon intensity; ability for domestic production to be replaced with imports (represented in part by existing imports); investment in new technology and upgrades needed to decarbonise; the extent of investment by competitor countries compared to the UK; and the extent to which sub-sectors of the industry are at particular risk of offshoring. For the additional sectors, the assessment also considered the emissions associated with industry products, expected future demand, and targets to phase-out the industry’s current technologies (e.g. petrol cars).
Supply chain job numbers are estimated using ONS multipliers, which quantify the number of indirect (supply chain) jobs in each industry proportional to the number of direct jobs.
ONS Input-Output Analytical Tables were also used to avoid double-counting indirect jobs (by estimating the overlap between direct jobs in any of the industries covered, and indirect jobs supported by others).
- Congress 2023 will be held in the ACC Liverpool (Kings Dock, Liverpool Waterfront, Liverpool L3 4FP) from Sunday 10 September to Wednesday 13 September. The deadline for obtaining free media accreditation has now passed. Late applications will be subject to a £75 + VAT administration fee. Passes will be processed and sent out from the middle of August. For more information, please contact the press office.
- About the TUC: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) exists to make the working world a better place for everyone. We bring together the 5.5 million working people who make up our 48 member unions. We support unions to grow and thrive, and we stand up for everyone who works for a living.
Contacts:
TUC press office
media@tuc.org.uk
020 7467 1248
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