Public transport upgrade for net zero targets could deliver a £4.1 billion productivity boost in the East Midlands by 2030 

A new TUC report published today (Wednesday) sets out an investment plan for public transport across England and Wales to meet net zero targets, improve quality of life, and boost the UK economy. 

The TUC says that the plan fills a gaping hole in the government’s recently published net-zero strategy, which failed to explain how ‘modal shift’ away from car use will be achieved that the Committee on Climate Change says is necessary. 

The report includes a section on the investment needed in the East Midlands and the benefits it will bring. (Pages 60-62) 

Overview of plan 

The investment plan published today – produced for the TUC by Transport for Quality of Life – is designed to meet the UK’s target to cut emissions by 68% by 2030 (from 1990 levels). 

The transition to electric cars is vital, but not sufficient. The UK Climate Change Committee warns that: “Electric vehicles must not be the sole focus, with action also needed on demand and a modal shift.” 

To reach the 2030 emissions target, a reduction in total car mileage of at least 20% is needed.  

The Scottish government has already set a target to achieve this reduction. Today’s report sets out how it can be achieved in England (not including London) and Wales, based on the combination of: 

• 10% car mileage reduction through car sharing and measures that reduce travel, such as working from home, remote technologies and better planning and land use. 
• 10% car mileage reduction from a modal shift to public transport. 

• 120% mileage increase in journeys by bus and tram. 
• 80% mileage increase in journeys by rail. 

The plan would require an average of £9.9 billion in annual capital expenditure up to 2035. And the additional operating costs for expanded bus, tram and rail services would reach £18.8bn annually by 2030.  

Economic and social benefits 

Productivity gains: 
The plan is estimated to boost annual GDP by £52.1 billion by 2030 through productivity gains, including a GDP boost of £4.1 billion in the East Midlands.  

This estimate is based on productivity comparisons with European population centres that have better public transport provision than the UK. 

Further GDP gains: 
The investment plan will generate GDP growth from construction work and supply chains through the period of capital expenditure to 2035.  

In less urbanised areas where the estimated productivity gains are lower due to the nature of industry, the investment plan can support growth in sectors like tourism and hospitality. 

Job creation in the East Midlands:  
Around 10,000 additional jobs (operation and maintenance) in the bus industry and a further 77,000 in construction/manufacture of bus infrastructure and electric buses. 

Around 200 additional jobs in the light rail/tram industry (operation and maintenance only) and 11,000 in construction over 12 years. 

Around 9,000 additional jobs in the rail industry (operation and maintenance only) and 177,000 in construction over 12 years. 

Social benefits: 
In 2020, a fifth of UK households had no access to a car, rising to 35% in the lowest income bracket. 

This plan will extend social and economic inclusion by increasing routes and reducing journey time, aiding journeys for accessing work, public services, retail, leisure, family, and friends. 

Public transport use has health benefits compared to cars, as journeys tend to include walking or cycling to access services. 

New public transport services 

The TUC believes that ministers and transport authorities should consult the public about how to extend and upgrade public transport services where they live and work. 

However, the TUC recommends the following as part of the overall programme that the investment plan could fund:  

• Complete both branches of HS2 in full, extending the Eastern leg from Toton to Leeds 
• Implement the Midlands Rail Hub, including the Eastern Chord to provide access to Birmingham Moor Street from the East Midlands 
• Extension and development of the Nottingham tram network to connect with Derby  

• Reintroduce passengers on the Leicester to Burton-on-Trent line 
• Extend the Robin Hood Line from Shirebrook to Ollerton, with intermediate stations at Warsop and Edwinstowe 
• Deliver a HS2 stop at Chesterfield as previously promised 
• Widen bus network coverage to every rural village 

TUC Midlands Regional Secretary Lee Barron said:  

"Everyone knows that we have to cut carbon emissions – and that switching to public transport is a big part of how do it.  

"Investing in public transport will help us meet net zero targets and cut the threat of catastrophic climate change. And it creates jobs throughout the East Midlands, boosts the economy in every community, and improves everyone’s quality of life. 

“Whilst pleased that we’ll still get a HS2 stop at Toton, the government’s scaling back of the project is a huge blow to our region. We need to link up fully with our businesses and neighbours in Yorkshire and to secure an HS2 stop in Chesterfield if we are to maximise the long-term potential of the scheme. 

“There’s so much more we can do to better serve our communities. From reopening local rail lines, to improving our connections with the West Midlands, it’s clear that investment offers the potential for huge rewards. 

“Derby is now the home of Great British Railways. We need the government to work with us to make the East Midlands a true home and champion of public transport. 

“Commuters will have faster and cheaper journeys to work. New connections will bring new businesses to places where people need economic opportunities. We will save lives with cleaner air. And we will reduce loneliness and isolation by making everyone better connected, wherever you live. 

“With this report, we’ve done the work that Conservative ministers should have done with their empty and incompetent net zero strategy.”