TUC Cymru calls for stronger commitment from all parties to Save Welsh Industry as it warns Reform policies could put 40,000 jobs at risk.

• Union body launches “Save Welsh Industry – No More Site Closures!” campaign with 5-point plan to defend industrial jobs -calling on all parties to improve policies 

• All parties need to improve policies, but Reform and Conservatives current position poses biggest threat – putting 40,000 jobs on the line, according to TUC analysis 

• Welsh areas most at risk are Flintshire, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthernshire. Over 500 jobs at risk in 17 of 22 Local Authorities in Wales, says TUC 

TUC Cymru has today (Monday) warned of the serious threat to Welsh industries like automotive, metals and plastic manufacturing posed by policies put forward by Conservatives and Reform. 

This week in Deeside and Swansea, Welsh industrial workers and the TUC are launching “Save Welsh Industry – No More Site Closures!”, to fight for their future and defend industrial jobs.  

The campaign is calling on all politicians to commit to its 5-point plan, and to set out their plans to protect and build industry in Wales in the run up to the election. 

Welsh industrial jobs at risk 

New TUC analysis models the expected impact on Welsh industrial jobs of political parties on course to do well in the Welsh elections in May.  

The analysis assessed which manufacturing jobs are most at risk of becoming uncompetitive or being offshored if industrial upgrades are not delivered due to party positions on investment into industrial upgrades, and modelled locations and numbers of jobs threatened. 

All parties need to step up and improve their offer. While the positions of some parties like Plaid Cymru, Labour and the Greens included positive components, these parties still need to take more action to meet campaign demands.  

Reform’s stated policy to end investment into clean industrial upgrades was assessed as threatening 39,873 industrial jobs in Wales.  

Conservative policies would threaten similar numbers of jobs, but with a lower likelihood.  

In comparison, Plaid, Labour, Greens and Lib Dems have all made stronger commitments to retaining or expanding clean industrial upgrades. 

Flintshire, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthenshire are the local authorities most at risk from  job losses, with over 2,000 industrial jobs at risk in each. 

7,765 auto workers are threatened, as are 7,544 metals workers and 5,813 plastics & rubber workers. These are both direct and indirect in the supply chain in Wales. 

Tory industrial neglect has pushed Welsh industry to the brink 

Too many Welsh industrial sites have already been forced to close or shrink, with thousands of good jobs slashed due to 14 years of Conservative governments starving industry of investment and support, according to TUC Cymru. 

TUC Cymru says that the industrial and trade policies of Tory Westminster governments undermined Welsh manufacturing and offshored production. This pushed factories, car plants and manufacturing sites in Wales to the brink. In 2024, thousands of steel workers in Port Talbot lost their jobs when Tata closed the blast furnaces, after years of underinvestment and the Conservative Government failing to develop a plan in time to save the site. 

Industrial pride in the future: Save Welsh Industry 

That’s why this week in Deeside and Swansea, Welsh industrial workers and the TUC are launching “Save Welsh Industry – No More Site Closures”, to fight for their future and defend industrial jobs.  

TUC Cymru says “Wales is at a crossroads” - and that Wales' once thriving industry that supported families and communities can prosper again.  

The union body says a “thriving, united Wales that works for everyone is possible, with good quality, futureproofed jobs for people today and future generations”. 

The analysis shows that further plant closures can be prevented with action from Westminster and the Senedd.  

The Save Welsh Industry campaign has a 5-point plan for the Welsh and UK government to collaborate to protect Welsh industry: 

1. Cut electricity costs: Deliver energy independence to reduce dependence on Putin and volatile gas prices, and strengthen and bring forward measures to reduce industrial electricity costs like BICS, aiming for price parity with EU competitors. 

2. Invest in clean industrial upgrades: Expand and accelerate public investment into clean industrial upgrades and infrastructure so that Welsh industry is competitive. This should include dedicate funding from the National Wealth Fund. 

3. Fix trade: Implement trade policy designed to prevent offshoring of jobs and emissions, by promoting domestic industry and prevent dumping of cheap, high carbon goods and materials.  

4. Use Procurement Power to buy Welsh: Make strategic procurement decisions and leverage the £700bn planned for major infrastructure to use Welsh-made steel, cement and materials. 

5. Strengthen Worker Voice: Industrial workers should be a critical delivery partner in the transformation and protection of our industries. Government should embed worker voice into site and sectoral transition planning at every level, including through a Futureproofing Industry Strategy.  

Reform’s threat 

All political parties need to improve their policies to protect industrial jobs, but the analysis shows that Reform’s current positions are the most likely to push Welsh industry over the brink, followed by those of the Conservative Party.  

This is because they are the furthest from meeting the Save British Industry campaign’s 5-Point Plan:  

• Reform’s plans to slash public investment by £225 billion will starve Welsh industry of investment and deny factories the upgrades they need. This would threaten the automotive jobs in Deeside and Merthyr Tydfil that need urgent investments to remain competitive.  

• Reform’s plans to get rid of domestic clean power and to rely on imported gas will drive up electricity prices. Higher energy bills threaten the plastic, paper and metals jobs in places like Tremorfa and Deeside. 

• Farage described Musk’s DOGE and “mass lay-offs" as a “blueprint for what we then do on our side of the pond”. Reform’s plan to slash public spending by £40 billion a year will shrink the power of Welsh and British government to purchase British and Welsh products. This would hit the Welsh steel jobs that benefit from public procurement. 

• Reform’s stated goal of cutting workers’ rights, including scrapping employment laws, will prevent workers shaping their own future. Reform consistently opposed the Employment Rights Bill, and could repeal it. To defend and protect Welsh industry, workers need more rights, not less. 

TUC Cymru President Tom Hoyles said:  

“Welsh industry needs urgent action from all parties to survive and thrive in the 21st century.  

“Policies which seek to turn back the clock and revive Thatcher’s industrial destruction would put thousands of Welsh jobs at risk.“ 

Welsh automotive worker Steve Richards said: 

“I’m proud of Wales. I’m proud of our industries.   

“It’s time for us to take our future into our own hands and stop site closures in Wales. 

“Nigel Farage’s current position presents the biggest threat to thousands of Welsh workers, and would take a wrecking ball to Welsh industry. 

ENDS 

Notes to editors: 

Methodology 

The analysis examined the potential impact of different political parties on course to do well in the Welsh elections in May, in relation to the Campaign’s 5-Point Plan.  

This quantitative analysis focused on the industries at risk of being left behind by plans to cut back or expand investment into clean industrial upgrades, as these are the most quantifiable. 

The analysis assessed which sub-sectors were most at risk of becoming uncompetitive or being offshored if industrial upgrades are not delivered, and modelled locations and numbers of jobs threatened. 

Different political parties were assessed based on their commitment to expanding, maintaining or shrinking investment into clean industrial upgrades. Plaid, Labour, Greens and Lib Dems have all made diverse commitments to retaining or expanding clean industrial upgrades. Reform and the Conservatives have the clearest commitment to scrapping net zero upgrades, with Reform’s commitments more wide-ranging, a clearer and more core commitment of the party than the Conservatives.  

This led to the analysis identifying Reform as the largest threat to traditional manufacturing jobs in the country, and the furthest from the Save British Industry 5 Point Plan. 

This analysis focuses on sectors where technological change is needed to remain competitive, as industries invest in industrial and manufacturing upgrades during the decarbonisation process, and phase out emissions from products to meet global standards. The selection of sectors was based on Energy Systems Catapult analysis on carbon leakage risk by sector, in addition to sectors reducing emissions from products to meet global standards and new technology (e.g. automotive, aerospace). 

Direct job numbers for sectors at risk are sourced from the ONS Business Register and Employment Survey (reference year 2021). The sectoral estimates were then downgraded based on the TUC’s analysis of the relative susceptibility of each broader sector to offshoring due to failure to decarbonise and deliver competitive upgrades.    

The susceptibility analysis considered a number of factors, including: the sector’s overall fossil fuel consumption; carbon intensity; ability for domestic production to be replaced with imports (represented in part by existing imports); investment in new technology and upgrades needed to decarbonise; the extent of investment by competitor countries compared to the UK; and the extent to which sub-sectors of the industry are at particular risk of offshoring.  For the additional sectors, the assessment also considered the international competitive threat by new technology and products manufactured elsewhere (e.g. electric vehicles made in China), in addition to emissions associated with industry products, expected future demand, and market forecasts for either reduced consumer demand or phase-out of the industry’s current technologies.  

Supply chain job numbers are estimated using Welsh Government multipliers, which quantify the number of indirect (supply chain) jobs in each industry proportional to the number of direct jobs.   

Welsh Government Input-Output Analytical Tables were also used to avoid double-counting indirect jobs (by estimating the overlap between direct jobs in any of the industries covered, and indirect jobs supported by others).