Public transport upgrade for net zero targets could deliver a £52 billion productivity boost by 2030

• NEW investment plan to meet net zero targets would create high-quality jobs in transport and manufacturing throughout England and Wales
• Productivity gains would boost annual GDP by £52 billion by 2030
• Meeting net zero in transport will “improve the quality of everyone’s lives”, says TUC

A new TUC report published today (Wednesday) sets out an investment plan for public transport across England and Wales to meet net zero targets, improve quality of life, and boost the UK economy.

The TUC says that the plan fills a gaping hole in the government’s recently published net-zero strategy, which failed to explain how it will achieve the ‘modal shift’ away from car that the Committee on Climate Change says is necessary.

Overview of plan

The investment plan published today – produced for the TUC by Transport for Quality of Life – is designed to meet the UK’s target to cut emissions by 68% by 2030 (from 1990 levels).

The transition to electric cars is vital, but not sufficient. The UK Climate Change Committee warns that: “Electric vehicles must not be the sole focus, with action also needed on demand and a modal shift.”

To reach the 2030 emissions target, a reduction in total car mileage of at least 20% is needed.

The Scottish government has already set a target to achieve this reduction. Today’s report sets out how it can be achieved in England (not including London) and Wales, based on the combination of:

• 10% car mileage reduction through car-sharing and measures that reduce travel, such as working from home, remote technologies and better planning and land use.
• 10% car mileage reduction from a modal shift to public transport.
• 120% mileage increase in journeys by bus and tram.
• 80% mileage increase in journeys by rail.

The plan would require an average of £9.9 billion in annual capital expenditure up to 2035. And the additional operating costs for expanded bus, tram and rail services would reach £18.8bn annually by 2030.

Economic and social benefits

Productivity gains:
The plan is estimated to boost annual GDP by £52.1 billion by 2030 through productivity gains.

This estimate is based on productivity comparisons with European population centres that have better public transport provision than the UK.

Further GDP gains:
The investment plan will generate GDP growth from construction work and supply chains across the period of capital expenditure to 2035.

In less urbanised, areas where the estimated productivity gains are lower due to the nature of industry, the investment plan can support growth in sectors like tourism and hospitality.

Job creation:
140,000 new jobs would be created working directly in bus, tram, and rail operation.

A further 830,000 jobs would be created in manufacture, construction, and infrastructure for buses and trams up to 2035.

And up to 1.8 million jobs would be supported indirectly through the rail investment, although they cannot all be considered ‘new’ jobs as change on this scale would result in movement across the labour market.

Social benefits:
In 2020, a fifth of UK households had no access to a car, rising to 35% in the lowest income bracket.

This plan will extend social and economic inclusion by increasing routes and reducing journey time, aiding journeys for accessing work, public services, retail, leisure, family, and friends.

Public transport use has health benefits compared to cars, as journeys tend to include walking or cycling to access services.

New public transport services

The TUC believes that ministers and transport authorities should consult the public about how to extend and upgrade public transport services where they live and work.

However, the TUC recommends the following as part of the overall programme that the investment plan could fund:

• Complete both branches of HS2 including connection from Crewe to Leeds
• Northern Powerhouse Rail including connection to HS2
• The Midlands Rail Hub, adding 14 million seats to the rail network each year
• Electrification of the full rail network
• A new guarantee of an hourly bus service for every village

TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said:

"Everyone knows that we have to cut carbon emissions – and that switching to public transport is a big part of how do it.

"Investing in public transport will help us meet net zero targets and reduce the threat of catastrophic climate change. And it creates jobs throughout England and Wales, boosts the economy in every community, and improves everyone’s quality of life.

“Commuters will have faster and cheaper journeys to work. New connections will bring new businesses to places where people need economic opportunities. We will save lives with cleaner air. And we will reduce loneliness and isolation by making everyone better connected, wherever you live.

“With this report, we’ve done the work that Conservative ministers should have done with their empty and incompetent net zero strategy.”