NEW mega poll shows Employment Rights Bill’s critics are “a world away” from the British public
Biggest ever poll on workers’ rights shows overwhelming support across the political spectrum and up and down the country the Bill’s key policies
MRP reveals voters in every constituency are projected to support key workers’ rights policies – including in Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch’s constituencies
TUC says poll shows Reform is “defying its own voters and constituents” with its opposition to landmark workers’ rights legislation
The TUC and Hope Not Hate have today (Monday) published a new mega poll which they say shows opponents of the Employment Rights Bill are “a world away” from the British public.
The union body says this shows an “undisputable mandate” for the flagship workers’ rights legislation.
The poll of over 21,000 people comes after criticisms of the Employment Rights Bill from the Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch, Reform leader Nigel Farage and parts of the business lobby.
But today's findings reveal huge support across the country and across the political spectrum – including with Reform and Conservative voters – over key policies in the Bill. The mega poll shows:
Banning zero hours contracts by giving workers a contract that reflects their regular hours: More than 7 in 10 (72%) of UK voters support a ban on zero hours contracts – including 2 in 3 Reform (65%) and Conservative (63%) voters from the 2024 general election support banning zero hours contracts. The figure is even higher with those saying they would vote Conservative (65%) and Reform (67%) if there was a general election held tomorrow. Just 15% oppose the policy.
Giving all workers statutory sick pay from day one: 3 in 4 (74%) voters support giving all workers the right to statutory sick pay, and ensuring it is paid from the first day – including 2 in 3 Reform (64%) and Conservative (62%) voters from the 2024 general election. The figure is even higher with those saying they would vote Conservative (65%) and Reform (66%) if there was a general election held tomorrow. Just 14 % oppose the policy,
Giving all workers protection from unfair dismissal from day one: 3 in 4 (73%) voters support giving all workers protection from unfair dismissal from the first day in the job - including 2 in 3 Reform (62%) and Conservative (62%) voters from the 2024 general election. The figure is even higher with those saying they would vote Conservative (65%) and Reform (64%) if there was a general election held tomorrow. Just 14% oppose the policy.
Making it easier for people to have flexibility in their patterns or hours of work: 3 in 4 (74%) voters support making it easier to work flexibly – including 2 in 3 Reform (63%) and Conservative (64%) voters from the 2024 general election. The figure is even higher with those saying they would vote Conservative (67%) and Reform (65%) if there was a general election held tomorrow. Just 12% oppose the policy.
The new MRP modelled support at a constituency level for two key policies from the legislation – banning zero hours contracts and giving all workers sick pay from day one – and reveals that voters in every single constituency are projected to support the policies.
Reform is defying its own voters on workers’ rights
The TUC says poll the shows how Reform is defying its own voters and constituents by opposing the Employment Rights Bill.
The new poll shows the workers’ rights laws are hugely popular with Reform voters from 2024 as well as Reform-leaning voters (those who would vote Reform if there was an election tomorrow).
Labour, Conservative, Green and Lib Dem voters also significantly back the policies. The TUC says this shows how the Employment Rights Bill cuts across traditional party lines.
In every Reform-held constituency, including in Reform leader Nigel Farage’s seat, there is significant support for banning zero hours contracts and giving sick pay to everyone from day one.
Nigel Farage (Clacton)
70% support banning zero hours contracts
71% support day one sick pay
Lee Anderson (Ashfield)
73% support banning zero hours contracts
75% support day one sick pay
Richard Tice (Boston and Skegness)
73% support banning zero hours contracts
72% support day one sick pay
Rupert Lowe (Great Yarmouth)
74% support banning zero hours contracts
73% support day one sick pay
James McMurdock (South Basildon and East Thurrock)
72% support banning zero hours contracts
74% support day one sick pay
There is also significant support in key Conservative-held areas, including in Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s seat and Shadow Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Kevin Hollinrake’s seat:
Kemi Badenoch (North West Essex)
69% support banning zero hours contracts
71% support day one sick pay
Kevin Hollinrake (Thirsk and Malton)
70% support banning zero hours contracts
70% support day one sick pay
Support for banning zero hours contracts and giving all workers sick pay from day one is also popular in five Labour-held seats, which the MRP model projects Reform as winning with the highest vote share.
Hull East
71% support banning zero hours contracts
73% support day one sick pay
Barnsley South
75% support banning zero hours contracts
70% support day one sick pay
Easington
73% support banning zero hours contracts
73% support day one sick pay
Normanton and Hemsworth
74% support banning zero hours contracts
78% support day one sick pay
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
68% support banning zero hours contracts
70% support day one sick pay
TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said:
"Make no mistake. The Government’s landmark Employment Rights Bill is a vote winner.
“Opponents of the Bill are a world away from views of the British public. These policies are massively popular right across the country, and right across the political spectrum.
“After the failed Conservative era of a low-rights, low-pay, and low-growth economy, voters can see the importance of making work pay and ending the scourge of insecure work.
“That’s why the Government must ignore the noise and deliver the Employment Rights Bill in full.
“Those who defend the broken status quo are putting their own vested interests above working people.”
On Reform defying their voters, Paul added:
“Reform is defying its own voters and constituents on workers’ rights. Reform MPs voted against the Employment Rights Bill at every stage.
“Nigel Farage and Reform aren’t on the side of working people – they’re on the side of bad bosses, zero hours contracts and fire and rehire.”
Hope Not Hate CEO Nick Lowles said:
“Reform UK is emerging as a major political force in Britain, and a serious threat to the Labour government's majority.
"Reform voters aren't a homogenous bloc - a sizeable number of these voters are actually supportive of multiculturalism and immigration.
“But one thing most Reform voters have in common is their support for stronger rights at work - from banning zero hours contracts to making it easier for workers to work flexibly.
"Measures like these are an antidote to the sense of pessimism tempting voters to Reform UK”
Full constituency data can be found here: https://www.tuc.org.uk/blogs/huge-support-governments-plan-make-work-pay
MRP: Focaldata conducted a poll of 21,270 UK adults from 30 Nov to 8 Jan 2025 designed to be representative of the national population according to demographics and past voting behaviour. The data from the poll were analysed using a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach to derive constituency-level estimates for the results of key questions including voting intention.
Focaldata specialises in mapping opinion poll data onto smaller geographic areas, using a technique known as MRP, or Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification. Data was collected on Focaldata's online platform, which plugs into a global network of panels and uses machine learning to automatically detect and screen out inconsistent and disengaged respondents.
Multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP) is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small geographic areas or sub-groups using national opinion surveys. MRP has two main elements. The first is to use a survey to build a multi-level regression model that predicts opinion (or any quantity of interest) from certain variables, normally demographics. The second is to weight (post-stratify) your results by the relevant population frequency, to get population level (or constituency level) estimates.
While the sample is not large enough to treat the data as separate constituency polls, we use MRP to look for patterns in responses across constituencies that have similar characteristics, and then work out the implications of those patterns for each constituency.
- About the TUC: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) exists to make the working world a better place for everyone. We bring together the 5.5 million working people who make up our 48 member unions. We support unions to grow and thrive, and we stand up for everyone who works for a living.
Contacts:
TUC press office
media@tuc.org.uk
020 7467 1248
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