Dependency ratios, international evidence
Dependency ratios, international evidence
Worker to retiree ratios, selected OECD countries
|
1990 |
2020 |
|
Finland |
3.2 |
1.8 |
|
France |
2.5 |
1.8 |
|
Germany |
2.4 |
1.8 |
|
Ireland |
2 |
1.5 |
|
Italy |
2.1 |
1.4 |
|
The Netherlands |
2.6 |
1.8 |
|
Norway |
2.2 |
2 |
|
Portugal |
2.5 |
2.1 |
|
Spain |
1.9 |
1.5 |
|
Sweden |
2.3 |
1.9 |
|
United Kingdom |
2.2 |
1.9 |
|
Total of selected countries (arithmetic average) |
2.4 |
1.7 |
Ageing of the Labour Force in OECD Countries: Economic and Social Consequences, Peter Auer and Mariàngels Fortuny , ILO, 2000, table 2.
Only the USA seems likely to avoid serious problems. The emerging industrial giants will come to this problem later, but in many ways, with a weaker social infrastructure, it may be worse for them:
'In any plausible future, population aging in low-income Eurasia is unlikely to be pretty. Absent only unthinkable catastrophe, the trajectory for a rapid graying (sic) is already essentially set for China, Russia, and much of India. Even with rapid and uninterrupted economic growth, by 2025 these aging or aged societies will be far poorer than was the West when Western societies had to face comparable degrees of population aging. There is no 'fix' to this basic dilemma ? at least, not in the next two decades.' ( 'Growing Old the Hard Way: China, Russia, India', Nicholas Eberstadt, Policy Review, Apr - May 2006. )
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