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FactCheck: Is Brexit really driving up agricultural wages?

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It’s a familiar argument. Immigration means employers are never short of labour, meaning they can get away with paying rock-bottom wages. Brexit will make it harder for employers to find workers from overseas, forcing them to attract British workers with higher wages.

Last week, the Government released its monthly estimates of earnings. While earnings fell in real terms for most workers, weekly pay in the agricultural sector has risen.

Meanwhile, the National Farmers’ Union’s monthly labour survey suggests that the number of returning seasonal workers has almost halved. Some commentators have been quick to argue that this drop in seasonal workers has forced employers into giving farm labourers a pay rise.

Is this a sign that Brexit is pushing wages up?

Average agricultural wages have risen in real terms…

It’s true that, when it comes to falling wages, average agricultural wages have bucked the trend. Last week’s Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey revealed that average earnings in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry had risen by £10 a week in real terms when compared to the previous September.

“Average” is the key word here. Unite, which represents workers in a range of sectors, reports very low wages among its members in the agricultural industry.  Even if average wages rise, many agricultural workers would still be badly paid. With significant numbers of workers not even being paid the minimum wage, rising average wages are unlikely to affect those who are most in need of a pay rise.

…but wage growth slowed after the referendum

Agricultural wages grew in 2017 – just like they did in 2016. And in 2015. That’s right, wages in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industry were already on the up when Brexit was no more than a twinkle in Boris Johnson’s eye.  

In fact, wage growth in the industry has been slower since the EU referendum. Even that meagre growth may be partly down to an increase in the minimum wage.

And that’s not the worst of it. Agricultural workers should be enjoying an extra £20 a week in spending power. But half of that’s been wiped away by rising prices.

Any ideas what’s been causing prices to rise?

Yes, you guessed it –  Brexit.

Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey

Wage growth may be even slower than it seems.

So far, we’ve talked about wages in the ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries’ industry. The survey results published last week only gives us an average for earnings across those three sectors. It’s true that relatively few people work in forestry and fishing. But if we look at a more detailed government survey, the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, we can see that wages for those who work in forestry and in fisheries tend to grow more quickly than they do in agriculture.

That means that the wages for farm workers may well be lower than the average for the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries industry suggests.

Graph
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ONS)

(British-made) jam tomorrow?

So it doesn’t look like Brexit has made farmworkers better off.  In fact, the worsening labour shortage could cost more jobs in the long run.  With the farming sector suffering from a 29% shortfall in seasonal workers in September, British-grown food is already rotting in the fields. If farmers can’t harvest their crops this year, they won’t plant them next year. And if they won’t plant them, they won’t need anybody to harvest them. That would mean fewer jobs for Brits and EU migrants alike.

Stronger regulation and unions needed to tackle low pay

Cutting immigration won’t tackle low wages in the agriculture sector because immigration isn’t the problem. Bad bosses, a lack of regulation and large supermarkets squeezing suppliers for lower priced goods are to blame for the agricultural industry’s low-pay crisis.  There are three ways we can deal with these.

Firstly, we can establish regulatory bodies like the Agricultural Wages Board. Until it was abolished in England in 2013, the Agricultural Wages Board set minimum pay and conditions for over 140,000 farm workers. Less than a year later, a Unite survey of agricultural wages found that 44 per cent of respondents were missing out on a pay rise. But if the board had still existed, that pay rise would have been guaranteed.

Secondly, we can make sure that every agricultural worker has access to a trade union. When workers aren’t protected by a union, they are more likely to be paid badly and treated unfairly. Wages will rise if employers allow trade unions to negotiate better pay and conditions on behalf of workers.

Thirdly, supermarkets should ensure workers in their supply chains are being treated decently and paid a living wage.

A Brexit that works for everyone

After months of childish quibbles and petty standoffs, it looks like we might finally be about to start meaningful trade talks.

A Brexit deal that left farmers short of workers wouldn’t increase wages. Instead, it would hit workers in every shop, factory and farm that makes and sells British food.

Any Brexit deal must guarantee trade and respect workers’ rights. The government must make sure that every agricultural worker can join a union.  They must also set up bodies like the Agricultural Wages Board to regulate pay and conditions.

Only then would farmworkers stand a chance of getting the wages they deserve.

Image: Artland/Getty Images

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