Who is currently claiming benefits?

Who is currently claiming benefits?

The most important reason for benefit receipt is disability, followed by short-term unemployment. This is shown below:

Table 1: Number of people claiming DWP benefits, February 2011

Table 2: Claims for DWP benefits of five years or more in duration

A seldom recognised fact is that prior to the recession, benefit receipt fell sharply under Labour except for disabled people. An implication of falling caseloads is that the remaining long-term caseload is likely to have different characteristics to the rest of the caseload, and generally, to be more disadvantaged. In the chart below we show the numbers receiving out-of-work benefits apart from the unemployed (who, by definition, are still in the labour market and therefore do not fit the concept of long-term 'worklessness'). For lone parents, the decline in numbers has been almost continuous since 1995, with the caseload in 2011 about 40% lower than in 1995. For the incapacity benefits group, the decline begins somewhat later, around the turn of this century, and saw a slight reversal with the 2008/9 recession. The caseload as of 2011 is about 25% lower than in 1995.

Figure 1: Out of work benefit claims (other than JSA) 1995, 2011, Great Britain

Sources: DWP benefits data 5% sample (1995-2002); Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (2002-2011).

These changes are in fact somewhat understated, as no account is taken of changes in demography and household structure: the UK working age population in 2011 is larger and older than in 1995, and the number of lone parents has increased by 350,000. Taking account of demographic change, between 2002 and 2010 alone, male receipt of Incapacity Benefit (without DLA) fell by nearly a third, and female receipt by over a fifth.)

The rise in the 'disabled' category is the other major trend in out-of-work benefit receipt over recent decades. As we are using DLA receipt to define the disabled group, trends are affected by the bedding down of the benefit, which was introduced in 1992, so some of the rise especially in the 1990's is due to the extension of coverage rather than any change in the population prevalence of disability. The upward trend since 2002 is entirely accounted for by people with mental health problems and learning difficulties. It is often asserted that the rise in DLA receipt is anomalous in a society with generally improving health but this misses the point, as there has been no recent increase in DLA receipt for physical conditions. Whether there has been an increase in the prevalence of severe mental health problems and/or learning difficulties, or whether the rise for these categories reflects changes in policy and practice, or earlier diagnosis of conditions, remains an open question. The only other source of out-of-work benefit receipt which grew in the period 2002-2010 was caring for disabled people.

Figure 2: Disabled people and carers as a proportion of long-term benefit claims, May 2002 - February 2011, Great Britain

Finally we can look at how the long-term caseload has developed since 2002. The share of the disabled and carers groups has increased rapidly, for both benefits in general and out-of-work benefits. It remains the case that about 40% of long-term out-of-work claims are not associated with DLA and carer's allowance, but as we have noted some of this is accounted for by lone parents with young children and some by disabled people not in receipt of DLA.

The tables below are drawn from DWP's benefits data, but with some adaptations to the standard presentation of these figures. This is mainly due to the way the standard presentation masks the importance of disability, and to a lesser extent caring for disabled people, in explaining benefit receipt. See Gaffney D (2011) ''Dependency' or disability; how to misread the evidence on social security' in Soundings issue 49.The second change we have made is to include estimated numbers of lone parents on JSA within the 'lone parent' category: since the Autumn of 2008 lone parents with children over the age of 12,with this age decreasing to 10 in 2009, and 7 in 2010, have been moving from Income Support to JSA, which distorts the DWP figures on lone parent claims. Finally, we have allocated lone parents receiving carer's allowance to the carer's group.

See Figure 3 in Bell, K. and Strelitz, J. (2011) Decent childhoods: Reframing the fight to end child poverty Webb Memorial Trust.

McVicar D. (2009) 'Local level incapacity benefit rolls in Britain: correlates and convergences' Queen's University School of Management (working paper December 2009) Gaffney D (2011) 'Dependency' or disability? How to misread the evidence on social security' in Soundings 49 (Winter 2011).

National Statistics (2011) 'Working and workless households 2011' See http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-222940

Gaffney, D. (2009) ''Dependency' or disability?..' (see footnote 22)

Beatty et al. (2009) Beatty C. Fothergill S. Platts-Fowler D. DLA claimants: a new assessment DWP Research report no. 585.

These points are evidenced in Gaffney, D. 'The stability of working age DLA receipt' (November 2011) http://lartsocial.org/http%3A//lartsocial.org/DLA-condition and Campbell S Marsh S Anon Franklin K et al. Responsible Reform (the 'Spartacus' report) January 2012 http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/files/response_to_proposed_dla_reforms.pdf