TUC publishes league table of shortfalls in NHS GP provision

Issue date

30 Jun 2018

Thousands to attend Our NHS is 70 today (Saturday), a national rally calling on the government to invest in a world class NHS

New analysis published today (Saturday) by the TUC shows the hotspots in England where there are too few GPs.

There is a shortfall in every single one of the 44 STP planning areas into which NHS England is divided. And half of these areas are estimated to be working with at least 20% fewer GPs than they need for the size of their local population.

Milton Keynes, Bedfordshire and Luton STP has the largest shortfall, with 43% fewer GPs than needed. And no area has all the GPs need – even the best provided area Dorset STP has 4% too few GPs.

The TUC says that the widespread – and in many cases severe – GP shortfalls are the result of under-investment in the NHS, which is apparent across many of its services.

Health economists at the IFS and Health Foundation estimate that in the next five years the Department of Health will need 4% extra per year to keep the NHS running at current service levels. But to modernise the NHS, they estimate annual funding increases of 5% will be needed.

The government has committed to giving the NHS around £20bn more a year extra by 2023/24 – an increase to the Department of Health budget of around 3%. This leaves a funding gap of at least £8bn by 2023/24 to maintain current levels of service, and a gap of £16bn by 2023/24 to modernise the NHS.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:

“Underfunding has left the NHS on the critical list. There are too few doctors, too few beds and too few healthcare staff.

“The best medicine for the NHS is the extra funding it needs. But the government is giving it too small a dose to bring it up to full health.

“We’re sending a message to the government today that our NHS needs a better deal. And it must be publicly owned and provided so that every penny goes to patient care and not to private profits.”

Frances O’Grady will speak today (Saturday) at Our NHS is 70, a national rally to celebrate the 70^th birthday of the NHS and to call on government to keep the NHS publicly owned and properly funded. To arrange an interview, call the TUC media team on 020 7467 1248.

Editors note

- League table for shortfall in GP provision by STP area

NHS STP areas*	number of GPs	number of GPs needed	% shortfall
Milton Keynes, Bedfordshire and Luton	441	630	43
Lincolnshire	359	495	38
Kent and Medway	864	1,179	36
Mid and South Essex	566	763	35
Suffolk and North East Essex	482	632	31
Northamptonshire	372	478	29
North West London	1,178	1,522	29
North East London	1,057	1,361	29
South East London	952	1,226	29
Greater Manchester	1,494	1,905	28
Hertfordshire and West Essex	771	974	26
Surrey Heartlands	451	567	26
North Central London	810	1,012	25
Sussex and East Surrey	976	1,217	25
Frimley Health	394	490	24
Humber, Coast and Vale	723	892	23
South West London	845	1,041	23
Staffordshire	592	720	22
Leicester, Leicestershire and Rutland	581	707	22
Lancashire and South Cumbria	907	1,101	21
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough	501	605	21
West Yorkshire	1,417	1,697	20
Durham, Darlington, Teesside, northern Yorkshire	597	712	19
The Black Country	765	911	19
Norfolk and Waveney	556	659	19
Birmingham and Solihull	704	820	17
Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire	540	631	17
Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire and Berkshire West	992	1155	17
South Yorkshire and Bassetlaw	840	977	16
Bath, Swindon and Wiltshire	506	585	16
Northumberland, Tyne and Wear and North Durham	967	1,108	15
Nottinghamshire	588	677	15
Coventry and Warwickshire	540	621	15
Hampshire and the Isle of Wight	1,017	1,171	15
Derbyshire	581	657	13
Cheshire and Merseyside	1,468	1,643	12
Shropshire and Telford and Wrekin	276	310	12
Gloucestershire	368	404	10
Herefordshire and Worcestershire	456	496	9
Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly	329	360	9
West, North and East Cumbria	187	203	8
Devon	711	766	8
Somerset	331	359	8
Dorset	484	501	4

* STP stands for sustainability and transformation partnership. These are 44 areas covering all of England, where local NHS organisations and councils have drawn up proposals to improve health and care in the areas they serve.

- Methodology:

McKinsey / NHS estimate that the number of appointments per week is 72 for every 1,000 population in England (of course it varies slightly between areas but that is an average).
The BMA estimate that the safe number of appointments a GP can deal with per week is 115 (they have methodology that backs this up – based on face time and hours per week based on 15 minutes consultations)
We calculate the number of appointments needed per week based on the resident patients in an STP area.
For example: A population of 100,000 would require 7,200 appointments per week. Dividing that figure by 115 (the number of appointments per week the BMA say is the safest ration per GP) gives 63 as the number of GPs required to meet demand.
We contrasted with the results with actual number of GPs in the STP area to provide a percentage shortfall.

- Health check app: The TUC and NHS Support Federation NHS Health Check online app for checking local NHS shortages is here: https://healthcheck.nhsfunding.info/funding/

- IFS and Health Foundation future funding report: On 24 May the IFS and Health Foundation published Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s. They concluded that, for the period 2018/19 to 2023/24, NHS funding must increase by an annual average of 4% to maintain the ‘status quo’, and 5% to ‘modernise’ the NHS. See table 3.5 on page 86: https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/R143.pdf

- Prime Minister’s ‘world class NHS’ speech: The Prime Minister Theresa May spoke about the future of the NHS at the Royal Free Hospital on 18 June. She committed to a long-term plan for the NHS that “enjoys the support of NHS staff across the country” and delivers “the world-class healthcare that we all want and expect”. The TUC has criticised the Prime Minister for claiming she is committed to a ‘world class’ service, but not providing sufficient funding in the government’s recent announcement to modernise the NHS.

- About the TUC: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) exists to make the working world a better place for everyone. We bring together more than 5.5 million working people who make up our 49 member unions. We support unions to grow and thrive, and we stand up for everyone who works for a living.

TUC media contacts:

Alex Rossiter
arossiter@tuc.org.uk
020 7467 1285
078 8757 2130

TUC press office
media@tuc.org.uk
020 7467 1248

Media contact for Our NHS is 70:
Ramona McCartney
ramona@thepeoplesassembley.org.uk
07933 594080

Stay Updated

Want to hear about our latest news and blogs?
Sign up now to get it straight to your inbox

Join a union