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The government’s decision to end real terms spending increases on the health service could mean that the NHS will be losing out on £25.5bn a year by the end of the decade, the TUC’s All Together for the NHS campaign warns today (Saturday).

The government’s decision to end real terms spending increases on the health service could mean that the NHS will be losing out on £25.5bn a year by the end of the decade, the TUC’s All Together for the NHS campaign warns today (Saturday).

The TUC calculation is based on NHS England’s own projections of zero real terms increases in government spending until the end of the decade.

The analysis has been released today by the union campaign on the 66th anniversary of the creation of the NHS, and at the end of the week that saw health workers from across England lobby MPs in Westminster and their constituencies about pay and the chronic underfunding of the health service.

The analysis considers forecast spending on the NHS over the next Parliament (from 2015-2020) compared to the position the health service would have been in at the end of the decade had health spending resumed growth at the same pace that it had during the last Parliament (2005-2010) when there was a 21 per cent increase in spending in real terms.

With spending on the NHS projected to increase only in line with inflation, this real terms freeze in funding means that although the economy is growing again, health spending is not – meaning that the health service is likely to miss out to the tune of billions of pounds a year by 2020, says the TUC.

Health workers are angry that funding shortfalls have already meant massive cuts in services, a four-year pay freeze across the NHS and the loss of thousands of posts.

They want the government to honour the recommendations of the independent NHS pay review body which said that all health workers in England should receive a one per cent cost of living pay rise. Health unions are unhappy that ministers have chosen to ignore this advice and only plan to give a one per cent increase to those NHS workers at the top of their pay scales.

Commenting on behalf of the All Together for the NHS campaign, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “The economy might be growing again, but the government continues to deny the NHS the funding increases it so desperately needs to run a health service fit for the 21st century.

“Health workers are upset that having accepted a pay freeze during the dark days of the recession, ministers are set on holding down NHS pay, even though the economy is now picking up.

“It may be NHS staff taking the hit in their pay packets now, but if the health service is going to be losing out on funding to the tune of a cool £25.5bn by the end of the decade, it will soon be patients paying the price.

“Morale is at a low ebb, and as health service employees feel increasingly like they are being taken for granted, it will make it harder for the NHS to recruit and retain skilled staff. This is bound to affect the quality of care at a time when patients are already facing increased waiting times and a reduction in staffing.”
 
NOTES TO EDITORS:
- NHS England project that under current spending plans health service spending will only rise in line with inflation between 2015 and 2020, despite mounting pressures on NHS services as set out on page 11 of the King’s Fund report The NHS Productivity Challenge (May 2014)
www.kingsfund.org.uk/sites/files/kf/field/field_publication_file/the-nh…
- The TUC analysis considers real terms public spending on health services from 1997 to 2012 (latest ONS data available). It sets out that public spending on health rose by 21 per cent in real terms over the last Parliament (2005-2010). If spending rose at this same pace from 2015-2020 public spending on health would be 25.5bn more a year by the end of the decade than is likely to be the case under the currently forecast real terms freeze. The TUC analysis assumes that under current plans spending in 2020 will be the same in real terms as in 2012. All data are in 2012 prices.

Year

Real terms public spending on health (2012 prices) (£bn)

1997

60.18

1998

63.23

1999

68.49

2000

71.62

2001

77.18

2002

83.61

2003

90.06

2004

98.00

2005

103.77

2006

109.87

2007

113.06

2008

118.56

2009

127.34

2010

125.61

2011

121.74

2012

121.33

Real terms spending increase on health 2005-2010

£21.85bn

Real terms percentage increase 2005-2010

21 per cent

Health spending in 2020 increased at the same rate as in 2005-2010

£146.88bn

Lost spending based on current spending projections (annual by 2020)

£25.55bn

- The TUC considers this is a conservative estimate. If public spending on health increased from 2015-2020 at the same average rate as was the case from 1997 – 2008 the shortfall facing the NHS would be over £50bn.
- There are 14 unions in the All Together for the NHS campaign – the BMA, the British Dietetic Association, the British Orthoptic Society Trade Union, the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, the GMB, the Hospital Consultants’ and Specialists’ Association, Managers in Partnership, the Royal College of Midwives, the Royal College of Nursing, the Society of Chiropodists and Podiatrists, the Society of Radiographers, the Union of Construction, Allied Trades and Technicians, UNISON and Unite.
- All TUC press releases can be found at www.tuc.org.uk
- Follow the TUC on Twitter: @tucnews
- Congress 2014 will be held at the Arena and Convention Centre, Liverpool, from
Sunday 7 September to Wednesday 10 September. Free media passes can be obtained by visiting www.tuc.org.uk/media-credentials and completing an online form. Applications must be in by noon on Wednesday 27 August. Any received later than that will be processed in Liverpool and will cost £75.

Contacts:
Media enquiries:
Liz Chinchen   T: 020 7467 1248    M: 07778 158175    E: media@tuc.org.uk

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