Brexit cost to public purse ‘enough to run the NHS in England for 3 months’, says TUC

13 June 2016

In a speech today (Tuesday) at the Our NHS: Safer IN rally at the TUC’s Congress House, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady warned that there will be less money available to fund the NHS if the UK votes to leave the EU.

TUC analysis based on figures from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the King’s Fund finds that the annual net reduction to government revenue in 2019/20 as a result of Brexit is likely to be equivalent to 25% of the NHS England budget.

The TUC analysis supports the concerns of Health Select Committee chair Dr Sarah Wollaston MP, and the Chief Executive of NHS England Simon Stevens, both of whom have said they believe the NHS budget will suffer if the UK leaves the EU.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:

“We can be incredibly proud of our NHS, and the magnificent work of NHS staff. And that’s all NHS staff, regardless of where they are from.

“Where would our NHS be without the 50,000 dedicated health staff from the EU? If we leave the EU, it could unleash an NHS staffing crisis and the longest waiting lists we’ve ever known.

“How dare the hard right Tories and Ukip who run the Leave campaigns pose as NHS champions. Let's be honest, they love the NHS in the way that Dracula loves a blood bank.

“Boris Johnson says he doesn’t believe in a free NHS and people should pay for health services. Nigel Farage says the NHS should be replaced by private health insurance. And Ukip’s millionaire backer says that if it was up to him the NHS would be privatised.

“The Leave campaign are fibbers, fakes and phonies. As Dr Sarah Wollaston said when she quit the Leave campaign, their claim it would mean more money for the NHS ‘simply isn’t true’.

“Funding for the NHS depends on Britain’s economy doing well. Leaving the EU will put the economy in trouble, and that will put the NHS in trouble.

“If we leave the EU, the public purse is likely to lose £30bn each year, which is enough money to fund the whole of NHS England for three months.

“The truth is that being in the EU makes our NHS better. So if you believe in the NHS and want to safeguard it for our children and grandchildren, make sure you vote Remain.”

At today’s Our NHS: safer IN rally, the TUC will also welcome Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn MP to speak about his concerns about the NHS if the UK leaves the EU, alongside union leaders and NHS staff. For full details see the notes below.

NOTES TO EDITORS:

- Impact of Brexit on public finances and NHS spending:

The IFS used NIESR analysis as the basis for a central estimate of the economic impact on the UK of leaving the EU. On this basis of a forecast hit on GDP of 2.1% and 3.5% the IFS estimates that the net change to public funds  as a consequence of Brexit (including the direct gains from the money the UK currently gives to the EU) is likely to be a reduction of between £20bn and £40bn in 1919/20. [See www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf]

·     Analysis by the King’s Fund of HMT budget and spending review plans suggests that the total NHS budget for England in 2019/20 will be around £120bn.

·     The IFS central estimate for the hit to public finances of £30bn is equivalent to a quarter for the entire NHS budget for England. [See www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/nhs-budget]

·     Even at the bottom end estimate by the IFS of £20bn, which is equivalent to £380m per week, it is more than the entire weekly budget that Leave campaigners claim goes to the EU. However, the Leave campaigns figure of £350m has in any case been criticised as inaccurate by the UK Statistics Authority as it does not take into account the UK’s rebate and the money that the EU spends in the UK.

·     While the TUC does not suggest that all cuts would fall on the NHS if the UK leaves the EU, this analysis provides a sense of the scale of the impact of leaving the EU on the public purse relative to NHS budgets. Given that other public services have been subject to significantly more severe cuts since 2010 than the NHS, it is likely that the NHS would come under particular pressure with any new cuts. If just £10bn was cut from NHS England it would be equivalent to every hospital trust in England cutting 1,000 nurses and 155 doctors, or the entire NHS budget for London.

- IFS view on the impact of Brexit on the NHS: The IFS stated: “we conclude that leaving the EU would not, as Michael Gove claims we said, leave more money to spend on the NHS. Rather it would leave us spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more.”

- Dr Sarah Wollaston’s views: Dr Wollaston is a Conservative MP and chair of the all-party Health Committee. She was a supporter of the Leave campaign until last week when she switched to Remain because of her concerns about the NHS. She said in a tweet on 8 June: “Having listened carefully to both sides of the debate, I believe our NHS & research will be safer if Britain remains in the EU.”

- NHS England Chief Executive Simon Stevens’ views: Mr Stevens told the BBC Andrew Marr Show on 22 May: “It would be very dangerous if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding, actually the economy goes into a tailspin and that funding is not there. It's been true for 68 years of NHS history that when the British economy sneezes, the NHS catches a cold and this would be a terrible moment for that to happen at precisely the time the NHS is going to need extra investment."

- Leading Leave campaigners’ comments on the NHS:

·     Nigel Farage – the Ukip leader told a meeting of party supporters in 2012: “I think we’re going to have to think about healthcare very, very differently. I think we are going to have to move to an insurance-based system of healthcare. Frankly, I would feel more comfortable that my money would return value if I was able to do that through the market place of an insurance company than just us trustingly giving £100bn a year to central government and expecting them to organise the healthcare service from cradle to grave for us.”

·     Boris Johnson – has attacked the NHS model of free service provision. He said: “There is a moral point. If NHS services continue to be free in this way, they will continue to be abused like any free service. If people have to pay for them, they will value them more.” From The Essential Boris Johnson, 2003.

·     Aaron Banks – the millionaire backer of Ukip and the Leave EU campaign said on a visit to Washington DC earlier this year: “If it were up to me, I’d privatise the NHS.”

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