New TUC report ‘A better recovery for Yorkshire’ (published today, Monday) sets out a plan to prevent mass unemployment following the pandemic, with secure jobs and decent pay for working families.
Unemployment risk in Yorkshire & the Humber
The TUC warns that there is a high risk of mass unemployment in Yorkshire without a recovery plan centred on protecting and creating jobs, backed by major investment.
Workers who have required support from the job retention scheme and self-employed income support scheme are most likely to face unemployment risks in the months ahead.
In the region, TUC analysis estimates that at least 775,600 workers (30% of the workforce) have required support from these schemes. The local authorities in the region with the highest proportion of workers seeking support through these schemes are Craven (41% of workers), Scarborough (38%), Selby and Ryedale (both 34%).
On top of these figures, there will be many other people who have been laid off, or who entered the employment market during the crisis, and have been unable to find work.
And the union body says economic uncertainty will affect all industries, so there will be pressure on the jobs of many workers who have not been furloughed too.
A plan to get Yorkshire growing out of the crisis – and stop mass unemployment
The pandemic alone did not cause the current crisis. It was made worse by a decade of austerity and failure to strengthen Yorkshire & the Humber’s economy, says the TUC.
Choosing the wrong approach now risks embedding low growth, long-term unemployment and all the social ills that go alongside.
The report recommends an approach based on recently published TUC research (see notes), which found that the fastest recoveries from economic crises in UK history were based on investment for growth.
An investment for growth approach must be resourced by central government, and will need action at regional level in five key areas:
These priorities complement the national priorities that we have already published in the TUC’s national recovery plan (see the notes below).
Local leadership and workers’ voices
The report calls for the formation of a Yorkshire & Humber regional recovery panel with representation from unions, employers, Job Centre Plus, relevant civic partners and local and regional government.
Regional panels would work in tandem with a UK National Recovery Panel to turn headline objectives into tailored strategies for each region.
The TUC says that regional structures with devolved powers are essential to achieving the best recovery possible, because the nature and scale of the challenge varies greatly across different parts of the UK.
In Yorkshire & the Humber, the union body is calling for regional leaders to prioritise:
Both the regional and national bodies should have worker representation so that workers’ voices are at the heart of decision-making for recovery plans.
TUC Regional Secretary Bill Adams said:
“People are very worried about their jobs. Many have been laid off already. Losing your job is a dreadful experience – devastating for families. And if we allow mass unemployment to take hold, our economy will be smaller, and the recovery from the pandemic will be slower.
“That’s why good jobs are at the heart of our recovery plan for Yorkshire & the Humber.
“We are calling for regional leaders to identify big, spade ready public works projects, such as the new mass transit metro for West Yorkshire; ramp up local manufacturing for the North Sea wind farm; support rail engineering in Doncaster and Goole; and commission new fleets of green buses from our local factories in North Yorkshire.
“Yorkshire can lead the way in a green recovery, if regional leaders bring unions and business round the table to make a plan. We’re calling on Mayors and local authority leaders to convene a Just Transition Taskforce with unions and employers to coordinate infrastructure spending, skills training, and business investment.
“And we must value our public services in Yorkshire too. Our key workers kept us going through the crisis. But after ten years of cuts, it was much harder for them than it should have been. It’s time to rebuild local public services for the future.
“This week, we’re asking the Chancellor to put his faith in people in Yorkshire & the Humber with big and bold investment. If he backs us in this way, we can avoid mass unemployment, work our way to recovery and build back better.”
ENDS
Notes to editors:
- Full report: The full report – A Better Recovery for Yorkshire is here:
https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2020-07/A%20better%20recovery%20for%20Yorkshire.pdf
- Regional and local unemployment risk: See the report for the full data by local authority. The analysis is based on claims made of support through the job retention scheme and the self-employed income support scheme. The figures are likely to be an underestimate, as around a million claims have not been assigned a location.
- Mass unemployment: Analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility suggests that the UK unemployment count could reach 3m people as a consequence of the coronavirus crisis https://obr.uk/coronavirus-analysis/
- Evidence in support of investment-led economic recovery: The TUC published research in May 2020 showing that the most successful economic recoveries in the last century of UK history have come from investment-led approaches.
The research compared government expenditure in the decades following significant economic shocks and downturns. It found that during periods like the post-war recovery (1947-57), investment for growth paid for itself.
This is because millions of working families had higher disposable income through decent work, creating the economic demand needed for strong growth and healthy public finances. And investment in stronger public services meant an effective safety that supported people to start and grow businesses.
The following table summarises the analysis, with explanatory notes below.
|
Annual average |
Percentage points of GDP |
|||
Rank |
Decade |
GDP growth, % |
Of which government expenditure, ppts |
Public debt at start of decade |
Change in public debt |
1 |
1931-41 |
4.5 |
9.9 |
181 |
-21 |
2 |
1947-57 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
244 |
-123 |
3 |
1991-2001 |
2.9 |
0.3 |
23 |
+6 |
4 |
1981-91 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
43 |
-19 |
5 |
1975-85 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
54 |
-15 |
6 |
1921-31 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
160 |
+20 |
7 |
2009-19 |
1.9 |
0.2 |
59 |
+22 |
Exposure to JRS/SEISS by LA |
Eligible for SEISS |
Claimed SEISS |
In employment (16+) |
JRS |
Total JRS and SEISS |
% of in employment on a scheme |
% of in employment on JRS |
% of in employment on SEISS |
Yorkshire and the Humber |
241,000 |
172,000 |
2579745 |
603,600 |
775,600 |
30 |
23 |
7 |
East Riding of Yorkshire UA |
15,500 |
10,800 |
160415 |
37,800 |
48,600 |
30 |
24 |
7 |
Kingston upon Hull, City of (UA) |
8,700 |
6,200 |
122877 |
31,900 |
38,100 |
31 |
26 |
5 |
North East Lincolnshire UA |
5,100 |
3,600 |
69893 |
17,200 |
20,800 |
30 |
25 |
5 |
North Lincolnshire UA |
6,000 |
4,100 |
76939 |
18,100 |
22,200 |
29 |
24 |
5 |
York UA |
8,400 |
6,200 |
110429 |
24,000 |
30,200 |
27 |
22 |
6 |
N. Yorkshire CC |
35,800 |
24,700 |
295160 |
72,600 |
97,300 |
33 |
25 |
8 |
Craven |
4,000 |
2,800 |
23531 |
6,900 |
9,700 |
41 |
29 |
12 |
Hambleton |
5,400 |
3,600 |
44104 |
9,400 |
13,000 |
29 |
21 |
8 |
Harrogate |
8,800 |
6,200 |
84150 |
19,000 |
25,200 |
30 |
23 |
7 |
Richmondshire |
3,000 |
1,900 |
24148 |
5,400 |
7,300 |
30 |
22 |
8 |
Ryedale |
4,000 |
2,700 |
27720 |
6,600 |
9,300 |
34 |
24 |
10 |
Scarborough |
6,400 |
4,600 |
50648 |
14,500 |
19,100 |
38 |
29 |
9 |
Selby |
4,300 |
3,000 |
40859 |
10,700 |
13,700 |
34 |
26 |
7 |
S. Yorks MC |
59,700 |
44,100 |
661901 |
145,600 |
189,700 |
29 |
22 |
7 |
Barnsley |
11,500 |
8,500 |
116239 |
27,400 |
35,900 |
31 |
24 |
7 |
Doncaster |
13,000 |
9,300 |
139688 |
35,700 |
45,000 |
32 |
26 |
7 |
Rotherham |
12,100 |
9,100 |
117006 |
29,100 |
38,200 |
33 |
25 |
8 |
Sheffield |
23,100 |
17,100 |
288968 |
53,500 |
70,600 |
24 |
19 |
6 |
W. Yorks MC |
101,400 |
72,500 |
1082131 |
256,300 |
328,800 |
30 |
24 |
7 |
Bradford |
24,600 |
17,500 |
222729 |
53,900 |
71,400 |
32 |
24 |
8 |
Calderdale |
9,800 |
7,000 |
98463 |
23,700 |
30,700 |
31 |
24 |
7 |
Kirklees |
19,500 |
14,200 |
202276 |
50,400 |
64,600 |
32 |
25 |
7 |
Leeds |
33,400 |
23,500 |
397829 |
88,200 |
111,700 |
28 |
22 |
6 |
Wakefield |
14,100 |
10,300 |
160834 |
40,100 |
50,400 |
31 |
25 |
6 |
Notes and commentary:
- TUC UK national recovery plan: Our regional reports complement the national report that we published in May 2020. The key areas of action we have called for nationally are:
The full national report can be found here: https://www.tuc.org.uk/ABetterRecovery
- About the TUC: The Trades Union Congress (TUC) exists to make the working world a better place for everyone. We bring together more than 5.5 million working people who make up our 48 member unions. We support unions to grow and thrive, and we stand up for everyone who works for a living.
Contacts:
TUC press office
For comment from TUC Regional Secretary Bill Adams, please contact Sonya Dennis
yhregsec@tuc.org.uk
0113 200 1078
sdennis@tuc.org.uk
0113 242 9696
Urgent calls: 07867 788856
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