Unemployment could take another four years to fall to pre-recession levels

date: 9 November 2012

embargo: 00.01 hours Monday 12 November 2012

It could take nearly four years to get unemployment in Britain back down to its pre-recession level, according to new analysis released today (Monday) by the TUC.

The study, which analyses the rate at which unemployment increased between January 2008 and July 2012 and the rate at it which decreased between January 2012 and July 2012, says that even if current trends continue it will take three years and nine months for Britain's jobless total to fall to pre-crash levels.

The research shows that while there have been modest falls in unemployment in some parts of the country since the turn of the year, in other areas joblessness has continued to rise.

In Yorkshire and the Humber, the East of England and Scotland unemployment is still rising and is higher now than it was in January 2012, while in other areas it has fallen.

The TUC findings also reveal that even in parts of Britain where the jobs market has picked up, it is still likely to take years to repair the damage caused by the financial crisis and government spending cuts.

In the West Midlands, for example, the unemployment rate shot up by three percentage points between January 2008 and January 2012 and has only fallen by a third (0.3) of a percentage point between January 2012 and July 2012.

The TUC says the research highlights the long-term effects of rising unemployment and exposes regional inequalities. It warns that unless unemployment falls across the country economic growth will not be spread equally.

Commenting on the study, TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber said:

'Although overall unemployment has fallen slightly in recent months in a number places there are parts of Britain where it is getting worse.

'The long-term damage inflicted by the crash and the government's ongoing economic mismanagement means that even if current rates of progress continue, it will take years for some areas to get unemployment back down to pre-recession levels.

'Unless urgent steps are taken to rebalance the economy and get people back into work at a faster rate, the government will continue to lose out on billions in tax revenues as a result of unnecessarily high unemployment.'

NOTES TO EDITORS:

Number of people aged 16 and above not in employment

Source: Office for National Statistics

Unemployment rate for people aged 16 and above

Source: Office for National Statistics

-This analysis shows the extent of the fall in unemployment over 2012 across nations and regions of the UK

-Between January 2012 and July 2012 unemployment fell by 117,000 across Britain. But between the start of the recession and January 2012 it rose by 990,000. This means that unemployment still has to fall by 873,000 to return to its pre-recession level. With the current rate of unemployment decreasing by 234,000 a year, it will take 3.8 years, or 45 months to get the level back to where it was.

- All TUC press releases can be found at www.tuc.org.uk

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Contacts:

Media enquiries:
Liz Chinchen T: 020 7467 1248 M: 07778 158175 E: media@tuc.org.uk
Rob Holdsworth T: 020 7467 1372 M: 07717 531150 E: rholdsworth@tuc.org.uk
Alex Rossiter T: 020 7467 1337 M: 07887 572130 E: arossiter@tuc.org.uk