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embargo: 00:01h Friday 28th December 2001 |
Attention: industrial, economic and political correspondents
John Monks' New Year's message:
2002 will be ‘make your mind up’ time for government
In his New Year’s message, TUC General Secretary John Monks said:
'The government faces a series of tough choices in the year ahead. Their decisions on these will define Tony Blair’s second term.
'First, the introduction of Euro notes and coins will make the Euro a live issue. I do not expect a referendum during 2002, but unless the government pushes ahead with the process of its economic tests and starts a serious hearts and minds campaign, the conclusion will be that no referendum will take place before the next election. That would be disastrous. If the decision is put off again, the international investment community will conclude (probably rightly) that new Labour simply hasn’t got the bottle to face down the Euro sceptics, and that will have serious economic and political consequences.
'This would be particularly bad news for the manufacturing sector. Some said the TUC was alarmist when we warned a year ago that 100,000 manufacturing jobs would be lost during 2001. But the likely final figure will be closer to 150,000. The continuing difficulties in the world economy makes it likely that a further 150,000 manufacturing jobs will be lost in 2002.
'We do not of course blame the government for the worldwide slow down. But they do have a responsibility to ensure that the country maintains a sufficient manufacturing base to respond to eventual economic recovery. A clear intention to join the Euro would be one effective way of bearing down on the overvalued pound, but the Bank of England must also stand ready to continue cutting interest rates in the year ahead. There are wider problems contributing to the particular difficulties of the manufacturing sector that flow from our relatively low productivity. One highlight of 2001 was the joint reports prepared by the TUC and CBI on tackling the productivity gap. The government has already begun to respond positively, and while all three partners may disagree about other issues, if we can continue to work together to address the productivity gap in the year ahead, that will be a real achievement.
'Second, the government must decide what it really thinks about public services. At the moment it appears to shift between two positions. One week it rightly recognises that turning round our public services will take huge efforts, considerable time and real money. That is an honest position. It chimes with the experience of service users. And after real delays in the first term, cash is now available.
'But another week it will pretend that there is some kind of quick fix, usually involving the private sector. Yet, to take the example of the NHS, the deep problems of under investment, shortage of doctors and nurses, and closed beds cannot be turned round by taking over a few beds in a BUPA hospital. No-one can object to spare capacity in the private sector or abroad being used as a short term measure for NHS patients, but to pretend that this is anything but a sticking plaster for a local bottle neck is to think that gimmicks and spin can substitute for sustained investment.
'Improving and modernising our public services is the biggest challenge facing the government. It will only succeed if it wins the support of public sector staff for the changes that are needed and convinces voters that a programme of steady improvement has begun. Gimmicks and an obsession with tomorrow’s headlines may appear attractive short-term tactics, but they work against the only long-term strategy that will deliver.
'Thirdly it must make up its mind what relationship it wants to have with business. Of course the government must work closely with business and help British firms prosper and succeed. But it must recognise that there are other interests as well - the consumer, the employee and the environment to name three prominent ones. It must also understand that being pro-business is not the same as responding to special interest lobbying from business leaders. Yet it has allowed a climate to develop in which sensible rules to regulate markets, protect consumers or secure minimum standards of fairness at work can be dismissed as red tape and regulation, rather than discussed on their merits. Yet as every study shows the UK remains one of the most lightly regulated economies in the advanced world.
'It must recognise that business lobbying can often be short sighted. Take for example training. Everyone now recognises that the poor skills level of much of the workforce is a major brake on productivity, but business has consistently lobbied against effective measures that would make employers invest in training their workforce, while other countries have got on with building high-skill, high-productivity workforces.
'Rather than respond to special interest lobbying, or give one lobby an inside track, the government must develop open partnerships with all the many interests that make up our complex society. And then, when they can persuade us to work together, as in the recent CBI-TUC proposals on productivity or the Low Pay Commission, they are likely to get sensible proposals that go beyond special pleading.
'2002 will also be a challenging year for unions. There are good signs such as new recognition deals that show unions can reach out to new workplaces, but continuing manufacturing job losses will hit membership. The challenge to unions to modernise and attract new members in the new sectors of the economy continues. New mergers will help modernise our structures.'
Notes to Editors:
All TUC press releases can be found at www.tuc.org.uk
Contacts:
Media enquiries: 020 7467 1248 or email media@tuc.org.uk before Friday 21 December 2001 or after Wednesday January 3rd 2002
Sat 22, Sun 23, Mon 24 - Philip Taylor, pager 07699 744 115
Tues 25, Weds 26, Thus 27 - Nigel Stanley pager 07699 755 102
Fri 28, Sat 29, Sun 30, Mon 31, Tues 1 - Richard Darlington, pager 07654 589 780
Press release (1,100 words) issued 27 Dec 2001
