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The UK Statistics Authority has today (Thursday) backed the TUC's complaint that Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith was wrong to say that official statistics backed his claim that the benefits cap had caused 8,000 people to move into jobs.

date: May 9 2013

embargo: for immediate release

The UK Statistics Authority has today (Thursday) backed the TUC's complaint that Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith was wrong to say that official statistics backed his claim that the benefits cap had caused 8,000 people to move into jobs.

A letter from Andrew Dilnot, chair of the UK Statistics Authority, to the TUC says:

We have concluded that the statement attributed to the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions that 'Already we've seen 8,000 people who would have been affected by the cap move into jobs. This clearly demonstrates that the cap is having the desired impact', is unsupported by the official statistics published by the Department on 15 April. The release Ad-hoc statistics on JobCentre Plus activity, from which the 8,000 figure appears to be drawn, explicitly states that the figures are 'not intended to show the additional numbers entering work as a direct result of the contact'.

Mr Dilnot has also written to the Secretary of State to say that his use of the statistics means that the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) is not compliant with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics:

'In the manner and form published, the statistics do not comply fully with the principles of the Code of Practice, particularly in respect of accessibility to the sources of the data, information about the methodology and quality of the statistics, and the suggestion that the statistics were shared with the media in advance of their publication.'

This is not the first time that Mr Duncan Smith has found himself in trouble for misrepresenting statistics. In January 2012 the UK Statistics Authority rebuked him for his handling of figures on benefits claimed by immigrants. And in 2010 he was criticised by the watchdog's former head, Sir Michael Scholar, for 'serious deficiencies' in his use of statistics during a debate on housing reform.

TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady said: 'Only people with weak arguments need to make up statistics. Of course we need a welfare system that guards against abuse, but this government is now causing real hardship and worry to many who have done nothing to cheat the system and are desperate to work.

'The Secretary of State needs to apologise not just to parliament, but to the many who cannot find jobs, for misusing his department's statistics in this way.'

The full text of the letter from Andrew Dilnot to the TUC reads:

STATISTICS ABOUT THE BENEFIT CAP

Thank you for your letter dated 15 April 2013 regarding the publication of official statistics about the benefit cap and related statements made by Ministers and Department for Work and Pensions officials. We have reviewed two DWP releases of statistics published on 12 April - Ad-hoc statistics on households identified as potentially impacted by the benefit cap and Ad-hoc statistics on JobCentre Plus activity regarding claimants who have been identified as potentially impacted by the benefit cap.

We have also reviewed various ministerial statements and media coverage before and after the publication of these statistics.

We have concluded that the statement attributed to the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions that 'Already we've seen 8,000 people who would have been affected by the cap move into jobs. This clearly demonstrates that the cap is having the desired impact' is unsupported by the official statistics published by the Department on 15 April. The release Ad-hoc statistics on JobCentre Plus activity, from which the 8,000 figure appears to be drawn, explicitly states that the figures are 'not intended to show the additional numbers entering work as a direct result of the contact'. The release Ad-hoc statistics on households identified points out a number of policy changes that occurred between the publication of the

56,000 and 40,000 numbers, as well as caseload changes 'due to normal caseload churn, reducing those potentially in scope for the cap'. It further notes:

'Once policy changes and methodological improvements have been accounted for, this figure [the revised estimate of the number of households that will be impacted - 40,000] has been calculated in a consistent way as that [figure] in the impact assessment [56,000], both assume no behavioural change.'

We have also reviewed the extent to which the two DWP statistical releases comply with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. I have written separately to the Secretary of State about these matters, and a copy of my letter is enclosed.

Yours sincerely

Andrew Dilnot CBE

NOTES TO EDITORS:

- The TUC's Campaign Plan can be downloaded from www.tuc.org.uk/campaignplan

- All TUC press releases can be found at www.tuc.org.uk

- Follow the TUC on Twitter: @tucnews

Contacts:

Media enquiries:
Liz Chinchen T: 020 7467 1248 M: 07778 158175 E: media@tuc.org.uk
Rob Holdsworth T: 020 7467 1372 M: 07717 531150 E: rholdsworth@tuc.org.uk
Alex Rossiter T: 020 7467 1337 M: 07887 572130 E: arossiter@tuc.org.uk

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